likely,
however, from the current research effort. Even with a
significant level of uncertainty, any scientifically
credible prediction that indicates a catastrophic
earthquake is expected within about 1 year or less, will
require very difficult and consequential decisions on the
part of elected officials at all levels of government.
Decisions may include such possibilities as the
mobilization of National Guard and U.S. Department of
Defense resources prior to the event, the imposition of
special procedures or drills at potentially hazardous
facilities, such as nuclear reactors or dams, the
condemnation or evacuation of particularly unsafe buildings
with the subsequent need for temporary housing, and the
provisions of special protection of fragile inventories. If
the prediction is correct and appropriate actions are
taken, thousands of lives can be saved and significant
economic losses can be avoided. The costs of responding to
a prediction may be substantial, however, and the
commitment of resources undoubtedly will have to be made in
the face of considerable uncertainty and even reluctance.
Indeed, the possibility of an inaccurate prediction must be
faced squarely.

=Actions=: FEMA, in conjunction with other appropriate
Federal agencies, State and local governments, and
volunteer and private-sector organizations, will increase
its actions to develop procedures for responding to a
credible, scientific earthquake prediction, including:

" Identification of constructive and prudent actions to
be taken

" Analysis of the costs and benefits of various
alternative actions

" Identification of roles and responsibilities in deciding
which actions should be implemented and by whom

" Criteria for evaluating circumstances when the provision
of Federal assistance would be appropriate

The U.S. Geological Survey of the Department of the
Interior will:

" Maintain a sound and well-balanced program of research
in earthquake prediction and hazard assessment based
upon a carefully considered strategic plan

" Work with State and local officials and FEMA to develop
improved mechanisms for the transmission of earthquake