private as
well as Federal, State, and local government buildings, insured and
uninsured. Excluded from consideration is the replacement value of
transportation and communication facilities, dams, utility
installations, and special purpose structures (e.g., convention
centers and sports arenas). Also excluded is the potential damage
resulting from a major dam failure or the indirect dollar losses due
to such factors as higher unemployment, lower tax revenue, reduced
productivity, and stoppage of industrial production. Experience
indicates that indirect losses could be approximately equal to the
dollar amounts lost in buildings and their contents. The property loss
estimates for four postulated earthquakes on the faults listed below
are as follows.

TABLE 2

ESTIMATES OF PROPERTY LOSSES FOR REPRESENTATIVE EARTHQUAKES[1]

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Loss to Loss of
Building Contents Total Loss
Fault ($ in Billions) ($ in Billions) ($ in Billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northern San Andreas 25 13 38
Hayward 29 15 44
Newport-Inglewood 45 24 69
Southern San Andreas 11 6 17
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[1] Uncertain by a possible factor of two to three.
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C. CASUALTY ESTIMATES

Deaths and injuries in these earthquakes principally would occur from
failures of man-made structures, particularly older, multistory, and
unreinforced brick masonry buildings built before the institution of
earthquake-resistant building codes. Experience has shown that some
modern multistory buildings--constructed as recently as the late
1960's, but not adequately designed or constructed to meet the current
understanding of requirements for seismic resistance--are also subject
to failure. Consequently, the number of fatalities will be strongly
influenced by the number of persons within high-occupancy buildings,
capable of collapsing, or by failure of other critical facilities such
as dams. Additional imponderables are the degree of saturation of the
ground at the time of the event and the possibility of weather
conditions