the civil sector there would be 24 to 72 hours of minimal
communications, with a possible blackout of telephonic communications
in the area immediately following an earthquake. The commercial
carriers would institute network control procedures to regain control
of the situation as fast as possible.

The impact on transportation facilities in any of the four
hypothesized earthquakes could be massive. Since the magnitude and
severity is unprecedented in recent years, conclusions regarding
losses must be accepted as tentative. As in the case of hospitals,
however, the lessons learned in earthquakes during the past 10 years
are being incorporated in the design and construction of new
facilities.

In general, all major transportation modes would be
affected--_highways_, _streets_, _overpasses and bridges_, _mass
transit systems_, _railroads_, _airports_, _pipelines_, and _ocean
terminals_, although major variances in losses are expected among the
modes. From a purely structural standpoint, the more rigid or elevated
systems (such as railroads and pipelines) which cross major faults on
an east-west axis would incur the heaviest damage, with initial losses
approaching 100 percent. Other major systems (such as highways,
airports, and pile-supported piers at water terminals) have better
survivability characteristics and therefore would fare much better,
with damage generally in the moderate range of 15 to 30 percent. These
transportation facility loss estimates are stated in terms of
immediate post-quake effects. They do not reflect the impact of
priority emergency recovery efforts and expedient alternatives that
are available, some within hours, to aid in restoration of
transportation capacity. In addition, transportation systems generally
have an inherently significant degree of redundancy and flexibility.
Consequently, an unquantified but significant movement capability in
all transport modes is expected to survive. Finally, these loss
estimates do not take into account the question of availability of
essential supporting resources, particularly petroleum fuels,
electricity, and communications. In the initial response phase, these
could prove to be the most limiting factors in the capability of the
transportation system.

Business and industry would be affected by damage to office buildings,
plants, and other support facilities. Although the 1971 San Fernando
earthquake occurred on the margin of a largely suburban area,