the major population centers of California. In each case they are
representative of only one possible magnitude of earthquake that could
occur on the indicated fault system. On each fault system there is a
greater probability of one or more damaging earthquakes of somewhat
smaller magnitude than the postulated event. The postulated
earthquakes are listed in the following table.

TABLE 1

MAJOR CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKES

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Current
Annual Likelihood
Probability of
of Occurrence
Richter Occurrence in Next
Region Fault System Magnitude[1] (Percent) 20-30 Years
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Los Angeles- Southern
San Bernardino San Andreas 8.3 2-5 High

San Francisco Northern
Bay Area San Andreas 8.3 1 Moderate

San Francisco
Bay Area Hayward 7.4 1 Moderate

Los Angeles Newport- Moderate
Inglewood 7.5 0.1 -Low

San Diego Rose Canyon 7.0 0.01 Low

Riverside Moderate-
San Bernardino Cucamonga 6.8 0.1 Low

Los Angeles Santa Monica 6.7 0.01 Low
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[1] This is the estimated largest magnitude earthquake expected
at a reasonable level of probability. The main shock can be
expected to be followed by large aftershocks over a period of
weeks or longer. Each large aftershock would be capable of
producing additional significant damage and hampering disaster
assistance operations.
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These earthquake scenarios represent the largest magnitude events
estimated on the basis of a variety of geologic assumptions. The
appropriateness of these assumptions depends on the intent of the
analysis and the state of geologic knowledge. Therefore, the resulting
estim