e made for
both an earthquake without warning, and one with a short-or
intermediate-term warning, possibly with a significant level of
uncertainty.

E. CAPABILITY FOR RESPONSE

Planning for response to a large-scale disaster is a complicated
process encompassing many variables such as population densities and
distribution characteristics; land-use patterns and construction
techniques; geographical configurations; vulnerability of
transportation; communications and other lifeline systems; complex
response operations; long-term physical, social, and economic recovery
policies. These factors, together with the realization that an
earthquake has the potential for being the greatest single-event
catastrophe in California, make it incumbent upon the State to
maintain as high a level of emergency readiness as is practicable, and
to provide guidance and assistance to local jurisdictions desiring to
plan and prepare for such events. Annex 2 reviews the general nature
of preparedness planning and the basic characteristics of California
and Federal Government plans.

Federal, State, and local emergency response capabilities are judged
to be adequate for moderate earthquakes--those that are most likely to
occur frequently in California and cause property damage in the range
of $1 billion. Such an event, however, would severely tax existing
resources and provide a major test of management relationships among
different governmental levels. Federal, State, and local officials,
however, are quick to point out serious shortcomings in their ability
to respond to a catastrophic earthquake. An analysis of the
preparedness posture of 60 local governments, 34 California State
organizations, and 17 Federal agencies, carried out by the California
Office of Emergency Services (OES) and FEMA, indicates that response
to such an earthquake would become disorganized and largely
ineffective. Many governmental units have generalized earthquake
response plans, some have tailored earthquake plans, and several plans
are regularly exercised. The coordination of these plans among
jurisdictions, agencies, and levels of government, however, is
inadequate. In addition, the potential for prediction is not
incorporated; long-term recovery issues are not considered; and
communications problems are significant, as discussed above. Overall,
Federal preparedness is deficient at this time. Early reaction to a
catastrophic event would likely be characterized