ordinarily to form fairly accurate judgments of the prices to be
expected. His success depends upon his ability to interpret rightly the
facts and intangible signs with which he is brought in contact. The
information at the disposal of dealers has steadily enlarged in volume
and improved in trustworthiness, though some of it is not yet invariably
above suspicion, and the time elapsing between an event and the
knowledge of it becoming common property has been reduced to a fraction
of what it used to be, in consequence chiefly of the telegraph and
cables. All sales that take place on the Exchange must be returned.
Estimates are published of the area under cotton cultivation, and
conditions of the American crop are issued by the American agricultural
bureau at the beginning of the months of June, July, August, September
and October of each year. To represent the standard of perfect
healthiness and exemption from injury due to insects, or drought, or any
other causes, one hundred is taken. The estimates for 1901 to 1905 are
given, to illustrate their variations:--

+-------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+----------+
| Year. | June 1st.| July 1st.| Aug. 1st.| Sept. 1st.| Oct. 1st.|
+-------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+----------+
| 1901 | 81.5 | 81.1 | 77.2 | 71.4 | 61.4 |
| 1902 | 95.1 | 84.7 | 81.9 | 64.0 | 58.3 |
| 1903 | 74.1 | 77.1 | 79.7 | 81.2 | 65.1 |
| 1904 | 83 | 88 | 91.6 | 84.1 | 75.8 |
| 1905 | 77.2 | 77 | 74.9 | 72.1 | 71.2 |
+-------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+----------+

These estimates are the averages of separate estimates which are
published for the states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia,
Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee.
The official figures are supplemented from time to time by numerous
private forecasts, for instance those in "Neild's circular." Ellison, in
his work on the cotton trade of Great Britain, traces in detail the
increase in the volume of information collected and made public. At the
close of the 18th century there was a tacit understanding among brokers
to supply one another with information. There were no printed circulars,
except the monthly prices current of all kinds of produce, but brokers
used to send particulars of business done to their customers in lette