ce than they are at
Liverpool. But it is futile to seek the effect of much dealing in
"futures" in the differences between price movements in the various
markets, because (1) demand expresses itself in different ways--in
Germany, for example, spinners buy to hold large stocks--and (2) the
markets are in telegraphic communication, so that their price movements
are kept parallel. Mr Hooker has shown with reference to the wheat
market how close is the correlation between prices in different
places,[7] and the same has been observed of the cotton market, though
the correlations have not been worked out.[8] It is worthy of note that
Liverpool "futures" are largely used for hedging by continental cotton
dealers.
+----------------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+-----+------+------+-----+------+
| | | Jan.-| Feb.-| Mar.-| Apr.-| May- | June-|July-|Aug.-| Sep.-| Oct.-|Nov.-| Dec. |
| |Spot.| Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May. | Jun. | July |Aug. |Sep. | Oct. | Nov. |Dec. | Jan. |
+----------------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+-----+------+------+-----+------+
|Nov. 18th, 1895 | 4.34|27 |28 |28-1/2|29-1/2|31 |32 |3 | .. | .. | .. | 27 |27 |
|Jan. 18th, 1899 | 3.8 | 6-1/2| 6-1/2| 7-1/2| 8-1/2| 9-1/2|10-1/2|1-1/2| 12 |12-1/2| .. | .. | 6-1/2|
|Sept. 14th, 1899| 3.36|24-1/2|25 |25-1/2|26 |27 | .. | .. | 30 |28 |26-1/2| 25 |24-1/2|
+----------------+-----+------+------+------+------+------+------+-----+-----+------+------+-----+------+
Differences between the prices of near and distant "futures."
Conceivably some indication of the working of "futures" might be gleaned
from observation of the relations of near and distant "futures" to one
another and of both to "spot." The complete explanation of changes in
these relations is still a mystery.[9] Probably an infinitude of subtle
influences came into play, and among these there seems reason to include
the intentional and unintentional "bulling" or "bearing" of the market.
Some examples of the diverse relations to be found, even when all the
"futures" fall in the same crop year, may be quoted here--quotations
running into the new crop year are obviously affected by anticipations
of the new crop.
As we pass from the "future" of the month in which the quotation is made
to the most distant "future" it will be observed that in the first and
second case
|