sure in my own mind that the Government hopes, by reviving the
Mexican question, to diminish the export of arms and munitions to
Europe. Public opinion, apart from the anti-German clique, would
probably welcome such a move, as it is widely felt that the traffic
in arms and munitions is hardly consistent with the continual appeals
to humanity sent out all over the world from Washington. My general
impression, as will be seen from the above, is that Mr. Wilson
considers his best chance of re-election lies in bringing peace
to Europe and restoring order in Mexico; for the latter purpose
he will probably employ General Iturbide, who spent the whole of
last winter in New York and Washington. He was at one time governor
of the district of Mexico City, where he acquitted himself with
courage and credit. He impressed me personally as a man of great
ability. He should be able to find sufficient partisans in Mexico
to enable him to raise an army, and the bankers of New York would
be prepared to advance him the necessary sums. General Iturbide
enjoys the full confidence of the present Administration, but only
the future can show whether he will succeed in establishing a stable
Government in Mexico, without the intervention of the United States."

(2) CIPHER

"Cedarhurst, 12th June, 1915.

"Since the publication of President Wilson's second Note on the
_Lusitania_ incident, the daily Press has been busy with conjectures
as to the real reasons for Mr. Bryan's resignation. It is generally
agreed that the Note itself could hardly have been the occasion of
the Cabinet crisis; as Bryan had concurred in the first Note, and
there was no reason, therefore, why he should not have assented
to the second one as well. On the other hand, no one can believe
that the controversy with Germany was in reality simply an excuse
for a personal trial of strength between Wilson and Bryan, after
the manner of the earlier rivalry between Taft and Roosevelt.

"Bryan has now published in the _World_ a manifesto addressed to
the German-American community defending his attitude in this matter;
but it is fortunately couched in terms which are unlikely to find
favor in the eyes of those for whose benefit it was written. It
would certainly be undesirable from our point of view that Bryan
should be regarded as the champion of the German cause in this
country; no useful result could follow from such advocacy. We must
use all our efforts to come to an und