by way of a
further public declaration. On to this new ground he would not go, until
assured that the government had had a fair opportunity given them.

By the end of December Mr. Parnell decided that there was not the
slightest possibility of any settlement being offered by the conservatives
under the existing circumstances. "Whatever chance there was," he said,
"disappeared when the seemingly authoritative statements of Mr.
Gladstone's intention to deal with the question were published." He
regarded it as quite probable that in spite of a direct refusal from the
tories, the Irish members might prefer to pull along with them, rather
than run the risk of fresh coercion from the liberals, should the latter
return to power. "Supposing," he argued, "that the liberals came into
office, and that they offered a settlement of so incomplete a character
that we could not accept it, or that owing to defections they could not
carry it, should we not, if any long interval occurred before the proposal
of a fresh settlement, incur considerable risk of further coercion?" At
any rate, they had better keep the government in, rather than oust them in
order to admit Lord Hartington or Mr. Chamberlain with a new coercion bill
in their pockets.

Foreseeing these embarrassments, Mr. Gladstone wrote in a final memorandum
(December 24) of this eventful year, "I used every effort to obtain a
clear majority at the election, and failed. I am therefore at present a
man in chains. Will ministers bring in a measure? If 'Aye,' I see my way.
If 'No': that I presume puts an end to all relations of confidence between
nationalists and tories. If that is done, I have then upon me, as is
evident, the responsibilities of _the leader of a majority_. But what if
neither Aye nor No can be had--will the nationalists then continue their
support and thus relieve me from responsibility, or withdraw their support
[from the government] and thus change essentially my position? Nothing but
a public or published dissolution of a relation of amity publicly sealed
could be of any avail."

So the year ended.

Chapter IV. Fall Of The First Salisbury Government. (January 1886)

Historians coolly dissect a man's thoughts as they please; and
label them like specimens in a naturalist's cabinet. Such a thing,
they argue, was done for mere personal aggrandizement; such a
thing for national objects; such a thing from high religious
motives. In rea