dy in progress. All the nations of
Western and Central Europe are moving towards a lower birth-rate and in
France this diminution has reached a point where there is no longer a
natural increase. In a few decades the birth rate will probably begin
to fall everywhere faster than the death rate declines. An adjustment
of the population to its probable resources will be in progress.

In this progressive decline in the birth rate is to be found the
greatest of all the factors making for internationalism and peace. It
is a development which takes away the edge from the present frantic
effort of industrial nations to secure a monopolistic control of
foreign resources. It permits the gradual creation of an equilibrium
between the nation's population and its physical resources at home and
abroad.

Powerful forces in the world are at present slowly making for an
economic internationalism to supplant the economic nationalism which
to-day makes for war. The problem that faces the United States is what
shall be its policy and action in view of the present nationalistic
strife and of the slowly maturing economic internationalism.

[1] November, 1916.

[2] The proposal to boycott Germany after the war is sometimes based
upon weirdly moral rather than economic considerations. "Is it
possible," writes one C. R. Enoch, "that trade relations with the
nation that has outraged every tenet of international and moral
decency, every consideration of humanity, and has committed unspeakable
atrocities, as has Germany in her conduct of the war, can be taken up
again at the point where they were broken off? ... There is only one
procedure compatible with honour and justice--namely, that no ordinary
commercial dealings should be carried out with Germany until the
_generation of Teutons that did these things has passed away_, unless
absolute penitence and reparation--if reparation be possible--is done
therefor." "Can We Set the World in Order." London, 1916, p. 197.
(My italics.)

[3] The granting of permission to the people of the disputed district
to decide their own allegiance is a good general principle, but,
unfortunately, does not carry us far. The main difficulty lies in
determining what shall be the unit of territory and population which is
to decide. If Ireland votes as a unit, all Ireland will have home
rule; if each county is to have the right of self direction, Ulster
will be detached from the rest of the island. I