ill be entered upon only with hesitation by several of
the nations, including some of the victors. It is even conceivable
that the movement might be furthered by certain of the belligerents on
both sides, as for example Germany, Great Britain, France and Italy
(aided by the United States and other neutrals) and be opposed to some
extent by, let us say, Russia and Turkey. It is not assumed that this
particular division among the nations will actually occur, but merely
that upon the conclusion of the war the moral integrity of the
alliances may be shattered and with the prospect of new cleavages and
disagreements, an effort be made, aided by the neutrals, to create
conditions doing away with the present balance of power. A war
disintegrates the elements making for success in war; enemies become
allies and allies enemies. At the final council board each nation
tends to return to its allegiance to itself, and with the passing of
the old alliances a new league based upon totally different principles
becomes possible.

It is, however, with a tempered optimism that we should approach the
international conference that is to end this war. Even if America is
represented and wisely represented, even if the powers are willing to
listen to proposals looking toward international reconstruction, the
probability that there will be an inclination to make concessions is
not overwhelming. Hatred, distrust, the injection of petty interests,
the tenacity of diplomatic conservatism will all work against a wise
forbearance and a far-seeing policy, and the errors of the Vienna
Conference of 1815 and of the Berlin Conference of 1878 may be
duplicated or worse. There is at least an even chance that the
international situation will be quite as unsatisfactory and perilous in
1920 as it was in 1900. Progress towards international reconstruction
is a possible but by no means {294} certain part of the agenda of the
diplomatic conference, which will meet when enough millions of the
youth of Europe have been slaughtered and maimed.

But those who desire peace and the international relations which will
alone make peace possible have learned to be patient, and if the
problem advances only slowly to a solution it will be sufficient
satisfaction to know that it advances at all. After this war there
will be many long years during which the nations may study at their
leisure the clumsiness of the arrangements which make for international
conflict.