minished and if their interchange were hampered in a large
degree. People have felt that the spinner, the miner, the weaver, the
machinist, are all by following their occupations performing a valuable
service to the community. How far this attitude of mind will persist after
the war, when normal conditions in industry and commerce gradually return,
remains to be seen.

B. IMMEDIATE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE WAR

1. _Foreign Trade_.--The effects of the war on industry and commerce will
be complicated and far reaching. The British and German Empires together
transact about two-fifths of the international trade of the world, the
British Empire doing over a quarter and Germany almost exactly an eighth.
Between them they own over half the merchant shipping of the world. A war
in which they are both engaged, therefore, must have serious consequences
not only to these countries themselves but to the countries with whom they
carry on business relations, and through them, in a lesser degree, to all
other commercial countries. But this is not all: France has a foreign trade
amounting to L615,000,000 a year; Belgium's is valued at L326,000,000,
Russia's at L275,000,000, and Austria-Hungary's at L256,000,000. Besides
a gigantic foreign trade there is a domestic trade, which is on a larger
scale than the external trade of these countries. Let us consider in more
detail the case of Germany. Half her foreign trade is transacted with the
nations now engaged in the great war. The trade of Britain, Russia, and
France with the German Empire is now at a standstill, except possibly for
a very small amount transacted via neutral countries; her trade with
Austria-Hungary must seriously decline. Moreover, her imports from neutral
countries and her exports to them have dwindled very considerably, and must
remain small as long as British naval supremacy continues. More than one
half of Germany's total imports are raw materials for manufactures, about
two-thirds of her exports being manufactured goods. Assuming that she
continues o conduct foreign trade through Norway and Sweden, Denmark,
Holland, Switzerland, and Austria-Hungary, the volume will be small, and
even if her whole trade with neutral countries could be maintained she
would still be without the trade of her enemies. For example, in 1913 this
country sold goods to the value of L40,000,000 to Germany and purchased
from her goods to the value of L80,000,000.[1]

[Footnote 1: