ure into
equal convulsions with our commerce, our business would be done at both
ends. But this I hope will not be. The good news from the Natchez has
cut off the fear of a breach in that quarter, where a crisis was brought
on which has astonished every one. How this mighty duel is to end
between Great Britain and France, is a momentous question. The sea which
divides them makes it a game of chance; but it is narrow, and all the
chances are not on one side. Should they make peace, still our fate is
problematical.

The countervailing acts of Great Britain, now laid before Congress,
threaten, in the opinion of merchants, the entire loss of our navigation
to England. It makes a difference, from the present state of things, of
five hundred guineas on a vessel of three hundred and fifty tons. If,
as the newspapers have told us, France has renewed her _Arret_ of
1789, laying a duty of seven livres a hundred on all tobacco brought in
foreign bottoms (even our own), and should extend it to rice and other
commodities, we are done, as navigators, to that country also. In fact,
I apprehend that those two great nations will think it their interest
not to permit us to be navigators. France had thought otherwise, and had
shown an equal desire to encourage our navigation as her own, while
she hoped its weight would at least not be thrown into the scale of
her enemies. She sees now that that is not to be relied on, and
will probably use her own means, and those of the nations under her
influence, to exclude us from the ocean. How far it may lessen our
happiness to be rendered merely agricultural, how far that state is more
friendly to principles of virtue and liberty, are questions yet to be
solved. Kosciusko has been disappointed by the sudden peace between
France and Austria. A ray of hope seemed to gleam on his mind for a
moment, that the extension of the revolutionary spirit through Italy and
Germany, might so have occupied the remnants of monarchy there, as that
his country might have risen again. I sincerely rejoice to find that you
preserve your health so well. That you may so go on to the end of
the chapter, and that it may be a long one, I sincerely pray. Make
my friendly salutations acceptable to Mrs. Gates, and accept yourself
assurances of the great and constant esteem and respect of, Dear Sir,
your friend and servant,

Th: Jefferson.

LETTER CCXXIV.--TO JAMES MADISON, February 22, 1798

TO JAMES MADISON.

Ph