al and mineral resources of South Africa, some words must be
said regarding its economic prospects--that is to say, regarding the
natural sources of wealth which it possesses, their probable
development, and the extent to which that development will increase the
still scanty population. The political and social future of the country
must so largely depend on its economic future that any one who desires
to comprehend those political problems to the solution of which the
people are moving, must first consider what sort of a people, and how
large a people, the material conditions which nature furnishes are
likely to produce.
The chief charm of travel through a new country is the curiosity which
the thought of its future inspires. In South Africa, a land singularly
unlike any part of Europe or of North America, this curiosity is keenly
felt by the visitor. When he begins to speculate on the future, his
first question is, Will these wildernesses ever become peopled, as most
of North America and a large part of Australia have now been peopled,
and if so, what will be the character of the population? Will South
Africa become one of the great producing or manufacturing countries of
the world? Will it furnish a great market for European goods? Will it be
populous enough and rich enough to grow into one of the Powers of the
southern hemisphere?
Let us begin by recalling the physical features of the country. Most of
it is high and dry; all of it is hot. The parts which are high and dry
are also healthy, and fit for the races of Europe to dwell in. But are
they equally fit to support a dense population?
South Africa has three great natural sources of wealth: agricultural
land, pasture-land, and minerals. The forests are too scanty to be worth
regarding: they are not, and probably never will be, sufficient to
supply its own needs. Fisheries also are insignificant, and not likely
ever to constitute an industry, so we may confine ourselves to the three
first named.
Of these three agriculture is now, and has hitherto been, by far the
least important. Out of an area of two hundred and twenty-one thousand
square miles in Cape Colony alone, probably not more than one
one-thousandth part is now under any kind of cultivation, whether by
natives or by whites; and in the whole country, even if we exclude the
German and Portuguese territories, the proportion must be even smaller.
There are no figures available, so one can make only the
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