e it was
sprung. Comparing this elaborate memorandum of the Black Dragon Society
with the original text of the Twenty-one Demands it is plain that the
proposed plan, having been handed to Viscount Kato, had to be passed
through the diplomatic filters again and again until all gritty matter
had been removed, and an appearance of innocuousness given to it. It is
for this reason that the defensive alliance finally emerges as five
compact little "groups" of demands, with the vital things directly
affecting Chinese sovereignty labelled _desiderata_, so that Japanese
ambassadors abroad could leave very warm assurances at every Foreign
Office that there was nothing in what Japan desired which in any way
conflicted with the Treaty rights of the Powers in China. The air of
mystery which surrounded the whole business from the 18th January to the
7th May--the day of the ultimatum--was due to the fact that Japan
attempted to translate the conspiracy into terms of ordinary
intercourse, only to find that in spite of the "filtering" the
atmosphere of plotting could not be shaken off or the political threat
adequately hidden. There is an arresting piece of psychology in this.

The conviction expressed in the first portion of the Memorandum that
bankruptcy was the rock on which the Peking administration must sooner
or later split, and that the moment which Japan must seize is the
outbreak of insurrections, is also highly instructive in view of what
happened later. Still more subtle is the manner in which the ultimate
solution is left open: it is consistently admitted throughout the mass
of reasoning that there is no means of knowing whether suasion or force
will ultimately be necessary. Force, however, always beckons to Japan
because that is the simplest formula. And since Japan is the
self-appointed defender of the dumb four hundred millions, her influence
will be thrown on the side of the populace in order "to usher into China
a new era of prosperity" so that China and Japan may in fact as well as
in name be brought into the most intimate and vital relations with each
other.

The object of the subsidized insurrections is also clearly stated; it is
to alter China's republican form of government into a Constitutional
Monarchy which shall necessarily be identical in all its details to the
Constitutional Monarchy of Japan and to no other. Who the new Emperor is
to be is a point left in suspense, although we may here again recall
that in