der of things, the danger and hardship during the transitional
period of several years would be incalculable. In certain
circumstances this might lead to the destruction of the nation. Even
if we are spared the tragedy of national extinction, the losses
sustained by the retarding of the progress of the administration
would be unredeemable. It is painful to recall past experiences; but
if my readers will read once more my articles in the _Hsin Min Tung
Pao_ during the years 1905 and 1906 they will see that all the
sufferings which the Republic has experienced bear out the
predictions made then. The different stages of the sinister
development have been unfolding themselves one by one just as I said
they would. It was unfortunate that my words were not heeded
although I wept and pleaded. Such has been the consequence of the
change of the state of the country--a change of _Kuo-ti_.

Yet before we have hardly ceased panting, this talk of a second
change is on us. I am not in a position to say exactly how this talk
had its beginning. Ostensibly it was started by the remarks of Dr.
Goodnow. But I am unable to say whether Dr. Goodnow actually gave
out such a view or for what purpose he expressed such a view. From
what he told the representative of a Peking newspaper he never
expressed the views attributed to him. Be this as it may, I cannot
help having my doubts. All Dr. Goodnow is alleged to have said
bearing on the merits of the monarchical and republican system of
government as an abstract subject of discussion, such as the
necessity of the form of state (_Kuo-ti_) being suited to the
general conditions of the country and the lessons we should learn
from the Central and South American republics, are really points of
a very simple nature and easily deduced. How strange that among all
this large number of politicians and scholars, who are as numerous
as the trees in the forest and the perch in the stream, should have
failed for all these years to notice these simple points; and now
suddenly make a fetish of them because they have come out of the
mouth of a foreigner. Is it because no one except a foreign doctor
can discover such facts? Why even a humble learner like myself,
though not so learned even to the extent of one ten-thousandth part
of his knowledge, more than ten years ago anticip