ont. But the reports of large movements of German troops to
the West, which really induced Mr. Asquith to send for me, were not
true. Constant reports, however, continued to reach the Government
from secret and reliable sources, that the Russians were even then
running very short of ammunition, and that their condition, as regards
the supply of war material generally, would certainly oblige them to
evacuate the enemy territory they had already won, and even
necessitate a retirement behind the Vistula, if not the Bug, with the
loss of Warsaw and other important fortresses. The home authorities
were undoubtedly influenced in forming this opinion by reports which,
however, did not emanate from any part of the Western theatre of war,
and I believe their judgment was generally hampered and warped by
paying too much regard to unauthorised statements. The divergence of
views which existed on various dates during the month of December is
curiously illustrated by the following quotations from letters and
telegrams.

On the 2nd, Kitchener wired to me:--

"It is reported new corps are arriving in Russia and that some of the
old corps lately between La Bassee and the sea have disappeared from
that front. Can you ascertain what truth there is in this? It is
thought possible the Germans may be replacing active corps by immature
formations along northern portion of Allied lines so as to use their
best troops in the Eastern theatre, where they are apparently
developing great strength."

On the 18th he writes:--

"The Russian news is very serious. I fear we cannot rely on them for
much more for some time."

On the 26th I received the following telegram from him:--

"I think before you see Joffre it may be useful for you to know I am
inclined to think Russians have been bluffing to a certain extent. I
cannot get answers to my questions from Petrograd which would clear up
the situation. For instance, amount of reserve ammunition in hand,
which, according to Military Attache here, who is kept entirely in the
dark by his Government, ought to be very considerable.

"A reason for a certain amount of bluff on their part might be that
they are now negotiating to obtain from us a loan of forty millions.
Anyway, their action in the field does not look as if they were as
badly off as they make out."

All kinds of reports continued to arrive, insisting that masses of
German troops were passing through Luxemburg and Belgium _en
route_ to