dragged into a war by Serbia would be
detestable.

"The ambassador agreed whole-heartedly in this sentiment."

On the same day, July 20, 1914, M. Yov. Yovanovitch, Serbian
Minister at Vienna, reported to M. Pashitch, Prime Minister at
Belgrade, that the word had been passed round in Vienna to maintain
absolute secrecy about what was being done in the Serbian matter.
There was no room for the optimism reported to exist in Belgrade. It
was highly probable Austria-Hungary was preparing for war against
Serbia.

"The general conviction that prevails here is that it would be
nothing short of suicide for Austria-Hungary once more to fail to
take advantage of the opportunity to act against Serbia. It is
believed that the two opportunities previously missed--the
annexation of Bosnia and the Balkan War--have been extremely
injurious to Austria-Hungary. In addition, the conviction is
steadily growing that Serbia, after her two wars, is completely
exhausted, and that a war against Serbia would, in fact, merely
mean a military expedition to be concluded by a speedy
occupation. It is also believed that such a war could be brought
to an end before Europe could intervene.

"The seriousness of Austrian intentions is further emphasized by
the military preparations which are being made, especially in the
vicinity of the Serbian frontier."

On the same day, July 20, 1914, a French consular report was made
from Vienna to the Government at Paris, which referred to the
diplomatic situation.

"Much will be demanded of Serbia; she will be required to
dissolve several propagandist societies, she will be summoned to
repress nationalism, to guard the frontier in cooperation with
Austrian officials, to keep strict control over anti-Austrian
tendencies in the schools; and it is a very difficult matter for
a government to consent to become in this way a policeman for a
foreign government. They foresee the subterfuges by which Serbia
will doubtless wish to avoid giving a clear and direct reply;
that is why a short interval will perhaps be fixed for her to
declare whether she accepts or not. The tenor of the note and its
imperious tone almost certainly insure that Belgrade will refuse.
Then military operations will begin.

"There is here, and equally in Berlin, a party which accepts the
idea of