a considerable
portion of his former influence, and my informants on both parts ought
to, and perhaps do, know the truth of the matter. On one side
everything is veiled in profound mystery, and nothing is let out but
what presents a discouraging prospect.

It has not such an effect upon my mind at present, and I am strongly
encouraged to hope, that the confederation will become properly
invigorated by the accession of the King of Prussia. The first open
part he took in it, was the issuing his ordinance of the 30th of last
April. Soon after this, (the 8th of May) he entered into a similar
convention with the Empress. About this time, (the 23d of May,) the
propositions for a general pacification were made, and on the 20th of
August, both the Prussian and Russian Ministers at the Hague notified
to the States-General the accession of his Prussian Majesty to the
confederation. Laying these things together, and presuming as I do,
that the confederated powers can have no well-grounded hope of reaping
any lasting benefit from their confederation, for the maintenance of
the liberty of their commerce, and of their navigation, but in the
establishment of the independence of the United States, one might
conclude with confidence, that all would soon go well between us, if
it was confidently to be concluded, that all Courts are governed by
the real interests of their countries, even where that is clearly
understood, or act upon a permanent system. All now depends upon the
stability of the Empress. If she should persevere in the noble line
she has marked out, of Sweden and of Russia there is no danger, and it
is probable Denmark will not stand out. The Emperor has ceased his
opposition to the confederation. The step is now short for him to
favor and support it. I believe it may be depended upon, that he has
already agreed to accede to it.

If I were to hazard an opinion touching the manner in which our
particular business will issue here, it is that the success of it will
depend upon the neutral powers consolidating themselves in their
confederation; that even after this should take place, our
independence will not be acknowledged by this Court before all the
neutral confederated powers shall have agreed upon this measure, and
are fully prepared to adopt it, and that even Holland waits for this
event, although her ease is now different from theirs, by being
actually at war with our enemy.

The ground on which the secret part of th