ns of my own upon it, because you will at once
discern its effects upon our present interests here, as well as upon
our commerce and navigation in future, should the scheme be carried
into execution, of which I believe there is now no probability, the
plan mentioned in my letter of March 30th, particularly that part of
it contained in the clause beginning "perhaps solidly" and ending with
"protection" seems to be opening upon us. I have never entertained an
idea, that her Imperial Majesty, or any other of the neutral powers,
would take a part in the present war. The probability of her doing so
is, if possible, much weaker than before.

Her attention will be turned to another quarter, and we may see a war
break out against the Turks, in which the Emperor may be concerned
likewise. Many movements tend to this end. An army of a hundred and
sixty thousand Russians are ordered to assemble at Kersant, a new
fortified village in New Russia, situated on the western side of the
Dnieper or Borysthenes, at about fourteen leagues from Oczakow, a well
fortified town of the Turks, famous in the war of 1736, situated at
the mouth of the same river, and opposite to Kinburn, a port which
Russia obtained at the last peace, but which is exposed to the sudden
attacks of the Turks from Oczakow. Eighteen regiments, amounting to
about twentyfive thousand men, have already arrived at Kersant, and
the residue, or as great a part as can be collected, will be at that
rendezvous in March next. The restoration of the deposed Khan of the
Crimea is the declared object of this great force; but I am told that
revolution has been effected by the intrigues of the Court of St
Petersburg, to raise a pretext for this movement, and to cover the
real object in view, and that the campaign next year will open with
the siege of Oczakow. I pretend not to be certain about this
particular information, but I give it to you as what appears to me not
to be improbable.

The Russian Ministers are in general Ante-Gallicans, and have, since
the exit of Count Panin, sought to divide or lessen the enemies of
Great Britain. Hence the most extraordinary proceedings to bring or
rather to drive the United Provinces into a separate peace with Great
Britain, (which have not yet ceased,) and hence all the patient
acquiescence in her attempt to make a particular peace with the United
States, though repugnant to the propositions of the mediating Courts.
I believe they would have b