without arranging several courses
of action for himself, based upon probable hypotheses that the relative
situation of the armies enables him to make, and never losing sight of
the principles of the art.

I can assure a general that, with such precautions, nothing very
unexpected can befall him and cause his ruin,--as has so often happened
to others; for, unless he is totally unfit to command an army, he should
at least be able to form reasonable suppositions as to what the enemy is
going to do, and fix for himself a certain line of conduct to suit each
of these hypotheses.[38] It cannot be too much insisted upon that the
real secret of military genius consists in the ability to make these
reasonable suppositions in any case; and, although their number is
always small, it is wonderful how much this highly-useful means of
regulating one's conduct is neglected.

In order to make this article complete, I must state what is to be
gained by using a system of signals. Of these there are several kinds.
Telegraphic signals may be mentioned as the most important of all.
Napoleon owes his astonishing success at Ratisbon, in 1809, to the fact
of his having established a telegraphic communication between the
head-quarters of the army and France. He was still at Paris when the
Austrian army crossed the Inn at Braunau with the intention of invading
Bavaria and breaking through his line of cantonments. Informed, in
twenty-four hours, of what was passing at a distance of seven hundred
miles, he threw himself into his traveling-carriage, and a week later he
had gained two victories under the walls of Ratisbon. Without the
telegraph, the campaign would have been lost. This single fact is
sufficient to impress us with an idea of its value.

It has been proposed to use portable telegraphs. Such a telegraphic
arrangement, operated by men on horseback posted on high ground, could
communicate the orders of the center to the extremities of a line of
battle, as well as the reports of the wings to the head-quarters.
Repeated trials of it were made in Russia; but the project was given
up,--for what reason, however, I have not been able to learn. These
communications could only be very brief, and in misty weather the method
could not be depended upon. A vocabulary for such purposes could be
reduced to a few short phrases, which might easily be represented by
signs. I think it a method by no means useless, even if it should be
necessary to send