32,527 to 32,448
(or about an even bet) that they are not two by honours; it is 36,924
to 25,350 (or 11 to 7 nearly) that the honours count; it is 42,237 to
22,737 (or 15 to 8 nearly) that the dealer is nothing by honours.(55)
(55) Proctor, The Sportsman's Sure Guide. Lond. A.D. 1733.
Such is a general sketch of the large subject included under the term of
the calculation of probabilities, which comprises not only the
chances of games of hazard, insurances, lotteries, &c., but also the
determination of future events from observations made relative to events
of the same nature. This subject of inquiry dates only from the 17th
century, and occupied the minds of Pascal, Huygens, Fermot, Bernouilli,
Laplace, Fourier, Lacroix, Poisson, De Moivre; and in more modern times,
Cournot, Quetelet, and Professor De Morgan.
In the matter of betting, or in estimating the 'odds' in betting, of
course an acquaintance with the method must be of some service, and
there can be no doubt that professional gamesters endeavoured to master
the subject.
M. Robert-Houdin, in his amusing work, Les Tricheries des Grecs
devoilees, has propounded some gaming axioms which are at least curious
and interesting; they are presented as those of a professional gambler
and cheat.
1. 'Every game of chance presents two kinds of chances which are very
distinct,--namely, those relating to the person interested, that is, the
player; and those inherent in the combinations of the game.'
In the former there is what must be called, for the want of a better
name, 'good luck' or 'bad luck,' that is, some mysterious cause which at
times gives the play a 'run' of good or bad luck; in the latter there is
the entire doctrine of 'probabilities' aforesaid, which, according to
M. Houdin's gaming hero, may be completely discarded for the following
axiom:--
2. 'If chance can bring into the game all possible combinations, there
are, nevertheless, certain limits at which it seems to stop. Such, for
instance, as a certain number turning up ten times in succession at
Roulette. This is possible, but it has never happened.'
Nevertheless a most remarkable fact is on record. In 1813, a Mr Ogden
betted 1000 guineas to ONE guinea, that calling seven as the main, the
caster would not throw that number ten times successively. Wonderful to
relate! the caster threw seven nine times following. Thereupon Mr Ogden
offered him 470 guineas to be off the bet--which he refused. T
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