but not quite exact.
Example IV. There are four horses to start for a sweepstake, namely,
A, B, C, D, and they are supposed to be as equally matched as possible.
Now, Mr Sly has laid 10 guineas A against C, and also 10 guineas A
against D. Likewise Mr Rider has laid 10 guineas A against C, and also
10 guineas B against D. After which Mr Dice laid Mr Sly 10 guineas to
4 that he will not win both his bets. Secondly, he laid Mr Rider 10
guineas to 4 that he will not win both his bets.
Now, we wish to know what Mr Dice's advantage or disadvantage is, in
laying these two last-mentioned wagers.
First, the probability of Mr Sly's winning both his bets is 1/3 of 14
guineas; and Mr Dice's expectation is 2/3 of 14 guineas, or L9 16s.,
which being deducted from his own stake (10 guineas), there remains
14s., which is his disadvantage in that bet.
Secondly, Mr Rider's expectation of winning his two bets is 1/4, and,
therefore, Mr Dice's expectation of the 14 guineas, is 3/4, or L11 0s.
6d., from which deduct 10 guineas (his own stake), and there remains
10s. 6d., his advantage in this bet,--which being deducted from 14s.
(his disadvantage in the other), there remains 3s 6d., his disadvantage
in paying both these bets.
These examples may suffice to show the working of the system; regular
tables exist adapted to all cases; and there can be no doubt that those
who have realized large fortunes by horse-racing managed to do so
by uniformly acting on some such principles, as well as by availing
themselves of such 'valuable information' as may be secured, before
events come off, by those who make horse-racing their business.
The same system was applied, and with still greater precision, to
Cock-fighting, to Lotteries, Raffles, Backgammon, Cribbage, Put, All
Fours, and Whist, showing all the chances of holding any particular card
or cards. Thus, it is 2 to 1 that your partner has not one certain card;
17 to 2 that he has not two certain cards; 31 to 26 that he has not one
of them only; and 32 to 25 (or 5 to 4) that he has one or both--that is,
when two cards are in question. It is 31 to 1 that he has three certain
cards; 7 to 2 that he has not two; 7 to 6 that he has not one; 13 to
6 that he has either one or two; 5 to 2 that he has one, two, or three
cards; that is, when three cards are in question.
With regard to the dealer and his partner, it is 57,798 to 7176 (better
than 8 to 1) that they are not four by honours; it is
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