because some have
been driven from a wreck upon the coast to which they are bound.

We are all ready to confess, that belief ought to be proportioned to
evidence or probability: let any man, therefore, compare the number of
those who have been thus favoured by fortune, and of those who have
failed of their expectations, and he will easily determine, with what
justness he has registered himself in the lucky catalogue.

But there is no need on these occasions for deep inquiries or laborious
calculations; there is a far easier method of distinguishing the hopes
of folly from those of reason, of finding the difference between
prospects that exist before the eyes, and those that are only painted on
a fond imagination. Tom Drowsy had accustomed himself to compute the
profit of a darling project till he had no longer any doubt of its
success; it was at last matured by close consideration, all the measures
were accurately adjusted, and he wanted only five hundred pounds to
become master of a fortune that might be envied by a director of a
trading company. Tom was generous and grateful, and was resolved to
recompense this small assistance with an ample fortune; he, therefore,
deliberated for a time, to whom amongst his friends he should declare
his necessities; not that he suspected a refusal, but because he could
not suddenly determine which of them would make the best use of riches,
and was, therefore, most worthy of his favour. At last his choice was
settled; and knowing that in order to borrow he must shew the
probability of repayment, he prepared for a minute and copious
explanation of his project. But here the golden dream was at an end: he
soon discovered the impossibility of imposing upon others the notions by
which he had so long imposed upon himself; which way soever he turned
his thoughts, impossibility and absurdity arose in opposition on every
side; even credulity and prejudice were at last forced to give way, and
he grew ashamed of crediting himself what shame would not suffer him to
communicate to another.

To this test let every man bring his imaginations, before they have been
too long predominant in his mind. Whatever is true will bear to be
related, whatever is rational will endure to be explained; but when we
delight to brood in secret over future happiness, and silently to employ
our meditations upon schemes of which we are conscious that the bare
mention would expose us to derision and contempt; we should