st cup, if followed back, would be found to go a
devious and winding way, soon splitting up into half-a-dozen or more
straggling branches that would lead to as many widely scattered regions.
If he could mount to a point where he could enjoy a bird's-eye view of
these and a hundred kindred trails, he would find an intricate
criss-cross of streamlets and rivers of coffee forming a tangled pattern
over the tropics and reaching out north and south to all civilized
countries. This would be a picture of the coffee trade of the world.
It would be a motion picture, with the rivulets swelling larger at
certain seasons, but seldom drying up entirely at any time. In the main
the streamlets and rivers keep pretty much the same direction and volume
one year after another, but then there is also a quiet shifting of these
currents. Some grow larger, and others diminish gradually until they
fade out entirely. In one of the regions from which they take their
source a tree disease may cause a decline; in another, a hurricane may
lay the industry low at one quick stroke; and in still another, a rival
crop may drain away the life-blood of capital. But for the most part,
when times are normal, the shift is gradual; for international trade is
conservative, and likes to run where it finds a well-worn channel.
In recent times, of course, the big disturbing element in the coffee
trade was the World War. Whole countries were cut out of the market,
shipping was drained away from every sea lane, stocks were piled high in
exporting ports, prices were fixed, imports were sharply restricted, and
the whole business of coffee trading was thrown out of joint. To what
extent has the world returned to normal in this trade? Were the
stoppages in trade merely temporary suspensions, or are they to prove
permanent? How are the old, long-worn channels filling up again, now
that the dams have been taken away?
We are now far enough removed from the war to begin to answer these
questions. We find our answer in the export figures of the chief
producing countries, which for the most part are now available in detail
for one or two post-war years. These figures are given in the tables
below; and for comparison, there are also given figures showing the
distribution of exports in 1913 and in an earlier year near the
beginning of the century. These figures, of course, do not necessarily
give an accurate index to normal trade; as in any given year some
abnormal happ
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