se you to learn that those _prima
facie_ probabilities pointed from the very first to that solution which
has been put to the test of experiment this evening. Hence it will be
well for me to begin by giving the conclusions that I reached by
reasoning from the facts set forth in the newspapers before any of the
further facts came to my knowledge.

"From the facts as stated in the newspaper reports it is obvious that
there were four possible explanations of the disappearance.

"1. The man might be alive and in hiding. This was highly improbable,
for the reasons that were stated by Mr. Loram at the late hearing of the
application, and for a further reason that I shall mention presently.

"2. He might have died by accident or disease, and his body failed to be
identified. This was even more improbable, seeing that he carried on his
person abundant means of identification, including visiting cards.

"3. He might have been murdered by some stranger for the sake of his
portable property. This was highly improbable for the same reason: his
body could hardly have failed to be identified.

"These three explanations are what we may call the outside explanations.
They touched none of the parties mentioned; they were all obviously
improbable on general grounds; and to all of them there was one
conclusive answer--the scarab which was found in Godfrey Bellingham's
garden. Hence I put them aside and gave my attention to the fourth
explanation. This was that the missing man had been made away with by
one of the parties mentioned in the report. But, since the reports
mentioned three parties, it was evident that there was a choice of three
hypotheses, namely:

"(_a_) That John Bellingham had been made away with by Hurst; or (_b_)
by the Bellinghams; or (_c_) by Mr. Jellicoe.

"Now, I have constantly impressed on my pupils that the indispensable
question that must be asked at the outset of such an inquiry as this is,
'When was the missing person last undoubtedly seen or known to be
alive?' That is the question that I asked myself after reading the
newspaper report; and the answer was, that he was last certainly seen
alive on the fourteenth of October, nineteen hundred and two, at 141
Queen Square, Bloomsbury. Of the fact that he was alive at that time
and place there could be no doubt whatever; for he was seen at the same
moment by two persons, both of whom were intimately acquainted with him,
and one of whom, Doctor Norbury, was ap