doubt that
he had been murdered and that his body had been concealed. Let us
consider the probabilities in each case.

"Assuming--as everyone seems to have done--that the visitor was really
John Bellingham, we are dealing with a responsible, middle-aged
gentleman, and the idea that such a person would enter a house, announce
his intention of staying, and then steal away unobserved is very
difficult to accept. Moreover, he would appear to have come down to
Eltham by rail immediately on landing in England, leaving his luggage in
the cloak-room at Charing Cross. This pointed to a definiteness of
purpose quite inconsistent with his casual disappearance from the house.

"On the other hand, the idea that he might have been murdered by Hurst
was not inconceivable. The thing was physically possible. If Bellingham
had really been in the study when Hurst came home, the murder could have
been committed--by appropriate means--and the body temporarily concealed
in the cupboard or elsewhere. But, although possible, it was not at all
probable. There was no real opportunity. The risk and the subsequent
difficulties would be very great; there was not a particle of positive
evidence that a murder had occurred; and the conduct of Hurst in
immediately leaving the house in possession of the servants is quite
inconsistent with the supposition that there was a body concealed in it.
So that, while it is almost impossible to believe that John Bellingham
left the house of his own accord, it is equally difficult to believe
that he did not leave it.

"But there is a third possibility, which, strange to say, no one seems
to have suggested. Supposing that the visitor was not John Bellingham at
all, but someone who was personating him? That would dispose of the
difficulties completely. The strange disappearance ceases to be strange,
for a personator would necessarily make off before Mr. Hurst should
arrive and discover the imposture. But if we accept this supposition, we
raise two further questions: 'Who was the personator?' and 'What was the
object of the personation?'

"Now, the personator was clearly not Hurst himself, for he would have
been recognised by his housemaid; he was therefore either Godfrey
Bellingham or Mr. Jellicoe or some other person; and as no other person
was mentioned in the newspaper reports I confined my speculations to
these two.

"And, first, as to Godfrey Bellingham. It did not appear whether he was
or was not known to