it can reply; three observers expressed their opinion on
contemporaneous happenings during the years 1905-1911. But a brutal
sequence of events in 1914 showed them--if they had not been convinced
during the preceding three years--that they had drawn false conclusions
from their observations.

To return to the last trial of strength between the two groups of
European Powers, it is interesting to note that Professor Oncken denies
German participation in formulating the ultimatum to Serbia, or that
Germany was aware of its contents. Germany merely left Austria a free
hand in the matter. Oncken endeavours to show that Austria's demands
were not excessive, and expresses astonishment that the opposing Powers
found them exorbitant. He does not mention the fact that a large section
of the German nation held the same opinion on July 25th, 1914.

His comment on Sir Edward Grey's efforts for peace is characteristic:
"England claims that she did everything possible to preserve the peace.
It cannot be denied that Grey made a series of mediation proposals. But
mere good-will is not everything. It is much more important to weigh
their practical importance, and the goal at which they aimed: Whether
they were intended to preserve the world's peace under conditions
honourable for all parties, or calculated to obtain for the _Entente_ a
one-sided diplomatic victory which would have established its future
predominance."[199]

[Footnote 199: "Deutschland und der Weltkrieg," p. 544.]

"Grey considered the moment suitable for a mediation proposal. On the
evening of July 26th, after obtaining Russia's consent, he proposed to
the Governments of France, Germany and Italy that their London
ambassadors should meet in London to confer on a peaceful solution of
the conflict.

"The proposal was unacceptable to Austria, because it would have been an
indirect recognition on her part of Russia's interest in the conflict.

"Only those who had followed the growing intimacy of the mutual
obligations between the Entente Powers, and their organization to a
'London Centre' during the summer of 1914, are able to estimate the
role--to say nothing of Italy--which Russia's two comrades would have
played in the conference. During its course Russia would have continued
her military preparations, while Germany would have had to pledge
herself not to mobilize.

"Finally, no unprejudiced observer would dare assert that the man (Sir
Edward Grey) who was ready t