; Russia's competitors in
wheat are not Germany, but Canada, India and Australia; Italy and France
are rivals for the same wine markets. Russia for years has kept down the
high cost of her living by buying cheap German goods at her front door
and having her projects financed by German capital. Will she face
bankruptcy by going hundreds--even thousands--of miles out of her way
and paying more for products? England for years has made huge profits
out of the re-export of Teutonic articles, thanks to the grace of free
trade and huge carrying power. Is she likely to forego all this?

In the last analysis Propinquity and the Purse are the Mothers of Trade
Alliance.

Finally, will not any organised exclusion of German products, coupled
with a definite and organised campaign to throttle German trade the
world over, throw the business of the Kaiser's country smack into the
lap of the United States? Sober reflection over these possibilities may
stay economic reprisal.

On the other hand, there are many ways by which even a near translation
of the economic pact into actuality may work hardship--even disaster--to
American commercial interests. No matter which way we turn when peace
comes we shall face the proverbial millstones in the shape of two great
alliances. One is the Allied Group, jealous of our new wealth and world
power, bitter with the belief that we have coined gold out of agony; the
other is the Teutonic Union, smarting because of our aid to its
enemies, stinging under reverses, mad with a desire to recuperate.

Examine our trade relations with warring Europe and you see how
hazardous a shift in old-time relations would be. To the fighting
peoples and their colonies in normal times we send nearly seventy-eight
per cent of our exports, and from them we derive seventy per cent of our
exports. The Allies alone, principally England and her colonies, get
sixty-three per cent of these exports and send us fifty-four per cent of
all we get from foreign lands.

As the National Foreign-Trade Council of the United States points out:
"Any sweeping change of tariff, navigation or financial policy on the
part of either group of the Allies, and particularly on the part of the
Entente Allies, may seriously affect the domestic prosperity of the
United States, in which foreign trade is a vital element."

Why is this foreign trade so vital? Because, during these last two years
of world upheaval we have rolled up the immense favourab