recognised as being little short of a
national scandal, and would not be tolerated were it not for the general
ignorance of our people concerning the exigencies of war and their blind
belief in the omnipotence of the navy. This defencelessness has two
dangers: firstly, the chance of a successful raid or invasion. As long
as our navy is not defeated, no invading force of more than 70,000 men
is supposed to be capable of landing. The second danger is that the mere
fear of such an event will prevent the despatch of the Expeditionary
Force and the fulfilment of our oversea obligations.

It must be obvious that in the precarious state of our national defence
anything which renders either of these dangers more probable should be
avoided at all costs. If, for instance, the condition of Ireland should
demand the maintenance of a larger garrison in that country, the whole
of our present organisation for defence falls to pieces. Looking only at
the present foreign situation, and the ever-growing menace of increasing
armaments, if the passing of Home Rule should require the retention of a
single extra soldier in Ireland, it is perfectly certain that nothing
could justify the adoption of such a measure. It is not intended to
convey the impression that there is any fear of Ireland repeating the
history of 1796 and welcoming a foreign invasion, although it is
impossible to ignore the anti-English campaign of agitation, or to say
to what length it will go; but the mere fact of internal dissension in
that country will give an enemy exactly the chance he looks for. Many of
those best qualified to judge are of opinion that Germany is only
waiting to free herself of an embarrassing situation, until one power of
the Triple Entente is for the time being too much occupied to intervene
in a Continental struggle. We have had one warning when, in September,
1911, a railway strike at home coincided with a foreign crisis. Are we
deliberately to take a step which will almost certainly involve us in a
similar dilemma?

This is the more immediate danger, but, apart from this, the strategical
value of Ireland will be profoundly affected by its separation from
England, and this constitutes a grave source of weakness, even if
internal trouble be avoided, and a comparatively loyal government be
installed. Ireland lies directly across all the trade routes by which
nearly all our supplies of food and raw material are brought, and it
covers the principal