new submarines built, while the production of ship
tonnage in England and the United States greatly outweighs the losses.
In other words, the submarine, as an element in the settling of the war
in a manner favorable to Germany, has steadily lost influence, and,
while it is not now a negligible factor, it is, at least, a minor one
and growing more so.

Secret figures of the British Admiralty on submarine losses and world
ship-building issued in March, 1918, show that from the outbreak of war,
in August, 1914, to the end of 1917, the loss was 11,827,080 tons.
Adding the losses up to April of the present year--when the submarine
sinkings began to show a markedly decreased ratio--and we get a total of
13,252,692 tons. The world's tonnage construction in the four years
1914-17 was 6,809,080 tons. The new construction in England and the
United States for the first quarter of 1918 was 687,221 tons, giving a
total from the beginning of the war to April 1 of 1918, 7,750,000 tons
built outside of the Central Powers since the beginning of the war, with
a final deficit of about 5,500,000 tons. Of this deficit the year 1917
alone accounted for 3,716,000 tons.

[Illustration: _From a photograph copyright by Enrique Midler_. A U. S.
SUBMARINE AT FULL SPEED ON THE SURFACE OF THE WATER.]

From the last quarter of 1917, however, the margin between construction
and loss has been narrowing steadily. In the first quarter of 1918 the
construction in Great Britain and America alone was over 687,000 tons
and the losses for the whole world were 1,123,510 tons. Here is a
deficit for three months--the first three months of the present year--of
436,000 tons, or an annual average of 1,750,000 tons, which is a deficit
one-half less than that of the black year of 1917. When figures at the
end of the present year are revealed we may find that we have reckoned
too little upon the ship-building activity of both England and the
United States, in which event the deficit may prove to be even less. But
in any event the dry figures as set forth are worth perusal inasmuch as
they point not only to the deadly effectiveness of the submarine in the
first year of unrestricted activity, but show how valiantly the Allied
sea power has dealt with a seemingly hopeless situation in the present
year.

In the House of Commons not long ago a definite statement that the trend
of the submarine war was favorable to the Allies was made. The one
specific item given was t