received any accession of strength, was almost certain to
prevail. This combination, or rather this accession of one party to
the Tories, which has taken place at Nottingham, is very likely, and
in Lord Melbourne's opinion almost certain, to take place in many
other parts of the country in the case of a general election, and
forms very serious matter for consideration as to the prudence of
taking such a step as a dissolution of the Parliament.

Lord Melbourne will wait upon your Majesty after the Levee. It
signifies not how late, as there is no House of Lords.

[Footnote 15: Where Mr Walter, a Tory, was elected with a
majority of 238.]

[Pageheading: THE BUDGET]

_Lord John Russell to Queen Victoria._

WILTON CRESCENT, _1st May 1841._

Lord John Russell presents his humble duty to your Majesty, and has
the honour to report that Mr Baring yesterday brought forward the
Budget in a remarkably clear and forcible speech.

The changes in the duties on Sugar and Timber,[16] and the
announcement made by Lord John Russell of a proposal for a fixed duty
on Corn, seemed to surprise and irritate the Opposition.

Sir Robert Peel refused to give any opinion on these propositions, and
satisfied himself with attacking the Government on the state of the
finances.

The supporters of the Government were greatly pleased with Mr Baring's
plan, and loud in their cheers.

It is the general opinion that Lord Stanley will not proceed with his
Bill,[17] and there seems little doubt of this fact.

But the two parties are now evenly balanced, and the absence or
defection of some two or three of the Ministerial party may at any
time leave the Government in a minority.

[Footnote 16: The proposals were to increase the duty on
colonial timber from 10_s._ to 20_s._ a load, reducing it on
foreign timber from 55_s._ to 50_s._, to leave the duty on
colonial sugar unloaded at 24_s._ a cwt., reducing that on
foreign sugar from 63_s._ to 36_s._ a cwt.]

[Footnote 17: On Irish Registration.]

_Viscount Melbourne to Queen Victoria._

_3rd May 1841._

Lord Melbourne presents his humble duty to your Majesty. We decided at
the Cabinet on Friday that we could not sanction the agreement which
Captain Elliot has probably by this time concluded with the Government
of China, but that it would be necessary to demand a larger amount of
indemnity for the past injury, and also a more complete security for