this year, nor, probably, the next, that this change will take
place; but, that it must ultimately come to pass, I can see no room to
doubt.[8]

[Footnote 8: Sept. 1845.--Recent accounts from Singapore in
some measure confirm this view. It is noted, among other
things, that the quantity of tea imported by the Chinese junks
in the season of 1844-45 was only 6000 quarter-chests; whereas,
in that of 1843-44, the imports exceeded twenty times that
quantity. Camphor, however, continues to come in as large
quantities as ever. The opium trade again, has diminished
three-fourths; and my prediction that pepper &c. would be
carried to the northern ports of China in European vessels,
has been fulfilled, though, from this branch of commerce,
Singapore, or its merchants, will still derive benefit as
carriers. The Chinese of Singapore have taken up this trade
with great spirit, and will doubtless continue it.]

In other branches of its trade, Singapore will, probably, not suffer so
much from the late arrangements with China; but it will suffer more or
less. It is extremely likely, that a large portion of the rice of Bally
and Lombok, the pepper of Borneo, and the beche-de-mer of Celebes, will
be carried direct to China in European vessels, instead of passing, as
hitherto, through the hands of the Singapore merchants. Whenever a new
mart is opened, there is no want of men, money, or ships to take
advantage of it; and we can place pepper from Borneo, and rice from
Bally, in any port on the coast of China, for less money, by carrying
them there direct from the place of growth, than the Chinese can by
carrying them from Singapore in their junks. These vessels only make one
voyage in the year; whereas a square-rigged vessel can make three with
ease; and it is on account of the greater service performed by the
latter, that she can carry goods to market cheaper than a junk. I
repeat, therefore, that I think the trade of Singapore has reached its
maximum; and that the town has attained to its highest point of
importance and prosperity. Indeed, it is at this moment rather
over-built. A beautiful and healthy town, however, it is; and that it
may not suffer materially or permanently from the causes above
mentioned, but continue to prosper as formerly, is a wish that comes
from the very bottom of my heart.

Singapore is under a Governor, (who also rules over Malacca and Penang,)
Resident C