nths longer. Some decisive change must occur. Yet
outwardly the situation has remained much the same not only for three
months but for two years, the exception being the overthrow of the
Anfu faction a year ago. And this occurrence hardly marked a definite
turn in events, as it was, to a considerable extent, only a shifting
of power from the hands of one set of tuchuns to another set.
Nevertheless at the risk of becoming a victim of the fallacy which I
have been setting forth, I will hazard the remark that the last few
months _have_ revealed a definite and enduring trend--that through the
diurnal fluctuations of the strife for personal power and wealth a
seasonal political change in society is now showing itself. Certain
lines of cleavage seem to show themselves, so that through the welter
of striking, picturesque, sensational but meaningless events, a
definite pattern is revealed.

This pattern is indicated by the title of this chapter--a movement
toward the development of a federal form of government. In calling the
movement one toward federalism, there is, however, more of a jump into
the remote future than circumstances justify. It would be more
accurate, as well as more modest, to say that there is a well defined
and seemingly permanent trend toward provincial autonomy and local
self-government accompanied by a hope and a vague plan that in the
future the more or less independent units will recombine into the
United or Federated States of China. Some who look far into the future
anticipate three stages; the first being the completion of the present
secessionist movement; the second the formation of northern and
southern confederations respectively; the third a reunion into a
single state.

To go into the detailed evidence for the existence of a definite and
lasting movement of this sort would presume too much on the reader's
knowledge of Chinese geography and his acquaintance with specific
recent events. I shall confine myself to quite general features of the
situation. The first feature is the new phase which has been assumed
by the long historic antagonism of the north and the south. Roughly
speaking, the revolution which established the republic and overthrew
the Manchus represented a victory for the south. But the
transformation during the last five years of the nominal republic into
a corrupt oligarchy of satraps or military governors or feudal lords
has represented a victory for the north. It is a significa