uation;
and its decisions or lack of them will be a considerable factor in the
determination of subsequent events. Sometimes one is obliged to fall
back on a trite phrase. We are genuinely at a parting of the ways.
Even if we should follow in our old path, there would none the less be
a parting of the ways, for we cannot consistently tread the old path
unless we are animated by a much more conscious purpose and a more
general and intelligent knowledge of affairs than have controlled our
activities in the past.

The ideas expressed by an English correspondent about the fear that
America is soon to be an active source of danger in the Far East are
not confined to persons on foreign shores. The prevailing attitude in
some circles of American opinion is that called by President Hibben
cynical pessimism. All professed radicals and many liberals believe
that if our course has been better in the past it has been due to
geographical accidents combined with indifference and with our
undeveloped economic status. Consequently they believe that since we
have now become what is called a world-power and a nation which
exports instead of importing capital, our course will soon be as bad
as that of any of the rest of them. In some quarters this opinion is
clearly an emotional reaction following the disillusionments of
Versailles. In others, it is due to adherence to a formula: nothing in
international affairs can come out of capitalism and America is
emphatically a capitalistic country. Whether or not these feelings are
correct, they are not discussable; neither an emotion nor an absolute
formula is subject to analysis.

But there are specific elements in the situation which give grounds
for apprehension as to the future. These specific elements are capable
of detection and analysis. An adequate realization of their nature
will be a large factor in preventing cynical apprehensions from
becoming actual. This chapter is an attempt at a preliminary listing,
inadequate, of course, as any preliminary examination must be. While
an a priori argument based on a fatalistic formula as to how a
"capitalistic nation" must conduct itself does not appeal to me, there
are nevertheless concrete facts which are suggested by that formula.
Part of our comparatively better course in China in the past is due to
the fact that we have not had the continuous and close alliance
between the State Department and big banking interests which is found
in the cas