llinois delegation,
and did not want to be considered a candidate. Acting on this idea
_The Tribune_ has been leaning towards Gresham as an available
candidate, as you have noticed. However, you have lost no ground
by standing in the shade. If I was managing your boom I would keep
your name in the background and out of the newspapers as a candidate
seeking the nomination until the last. A few strong judicious
friends among the Illinois delegation is all you want to watch
events and move quickly at the opportune moment, if it arrives.
I should say that on general principles you would be the second
choice of any set of Illinois delegates and the chances are all in
the direction of some second-choice candidate. Harrison is likely
to have a pledged delegation from Indiana, but what good will it
do him? Logan had a pledged delegation from Illinois; Sherman,
from Ohio; Windom, from Minn.; and Hawley, from Conn. The convention
will be largely chiefly actuated and governed by the stability
idea. Personal friendship won't count for much in that search for
the most available candidate. This you see as clearly as I do.
Whatever Western man the New York delegates (or a majority of them)
favor will stand a good chance of getting it. It is almost impossible
to figure out a victory without the electoral vote of New York.
Indiana and Connecticut would be absolutely indispensable in the
absence of New York. But even then we have doubtful States that
voted for Blaine. Michigan, for instance, and the three Pacific
Coast States, in case any such man as Sherman, Harrison, or Hawley,
who voted against restricting Chinese immigration, should be
nominated. And then it remains to be seen what sort of action will
be had in Congress on tariff reduction. If we are obliged to go
before the people defending the present tariff, that is breeding
trust monopolies all over the country, a nomination will not be
worth having. High protection is a nice thing for those who pocket
it, but not so fascinating to the unprotected classes who have to
pay the big bounties out of their pockets sold at free trade prices.
All those things must be taken into consideration. I am about
leaving Florida for home, either via Atlantic or Washington. If
the latter, I shall see you when I get there, when we can talk over
the whole matter more fully than on paper. All I can really say
is, I am peering about in the dark for the strongest candidate,
the most a