fined. As
regards the determination of the plan of offence referred to in the
above War Office despatch, the difficulty was due to the hope
entertained by the Cabinet that, in the event of war between this
country and the Transvaal, the Orange Free State would remain neutral.
The choice in that case would have lain between an advance based on
Warrenton, _i.e._, on the Kimberley-to-Mafeking railway, or a movement
parallel to the Natal-to-Johannesburg railway. By the middle of 1899,
however, the Headquarter staff at the War Office were convinced that,
if war should supervene, the two republics would make common cause. A
memorandum, entitled, "The Direction of a Line of Advance Against the
Transvaal," was prepared by the Intelligence division on that basis
and submitted on 3rd June, 1899. It was contended in this memorandum
that the lack of any railway between Fourteen Streams and the
Transvaal capital eliminated that route from consideration, and that
the choice now lay between the line running up through the centre of
the Free State and the Natal route.

[Sidenote: The better line.]

In comparing the relative merits of these two routes it was shown that
strategically the Natal line would, owing to the shape of the frontier
and the parallel screen of the Drakensberg, be constantly exposed to
dangerous flank attacks, while the flanks of the Free State route
would be comparatively safe. "The Basutos' sympathies will be entirely
with us, while on the west the garrison of Kimberley will hold the
approaches."

[Sidenote: Reasons.]

Tactically, it was pointed out, the Natal route traversed "an ideal
terrain for the Boers," and crossed the "immensely strong" position of
Laing's Nek. On the other hand, a force advancing by the Free State
route, once over the Orange river, would have only to deal with the
Bethulie position, and would then reach open plains, which "afford the
freest scope for the manoeuvres of all three arms."

[Sidenote: Conclusion.]

Furthermore, the Free State route could be fed by three distinct lines
of railway from three ports, while the Natal route would be dependent
on a single line and one port. The memorandum, therefore, submitted
the conclusion that "the main line of advance against the Transvaal
should be based on the Cape Colony, and should follow generally the
line of railway through the Orange Free State to Johannesburg and
Pretoria."

[Sidenote: Natal threatened.]

In June it became evid