should expect, have a somewhat high birth-rate.

The case of Japan is interesting as that of a vigorous young Eastern
nation, which has assimilated Western ways and is encountering the evils
which come of those ways. Japan is certainly worthy of all our
admiration for the skill and vigour with which it has affirmed its young
nationality along Western lines. But when the vital statistics of Japan
are vaguely referred to either as a model for our imitation or as a
threatening peril to us, we may do well to look into the matter a little
more closely. The infantile mortality of Japan (1908) is 157, a very
high figure, 50 per cent higher than that of England, much more than
double that of New Zealand, or South Australia. Moreover, it has rapidly
risen during the last ten years. The birth-rate of Japan in 1901-2 was
high (36), though it has since fallen to the level of ten years ago. But
the death-rate has risen concomitantly (to over 24 per 1000), and has
continued to rise notwithstanding the slight decline in the birth-rate.
We see here a tendency to the sinister combination of a falling
birth-rate with a rising death-rate.[107] It is obvious that such a
tendency, if continued, will furnish a serious problem to Japanese
social reformers, and at the same time make it impossible for Western
alarmists to regard the rise of Japan as a menace to the world.

It is behind China that these alarmists, when driven from every other
position, finally entrench themselves. "The ultimate future of these
islands may be to the Chinese," incautiously exclaims Mr. Sidney Webb,
who on many subjects, unconnected with China, speaks with authority. The
knowledge of the vital statistics of China possessed by our alarmists is
vague to the most extreme degree, but as the knowledge of all of us is
scarcely less vague, they assume that their position is fairly safe.
That, however, is an altogether questionable assumption. It seems to be
quite true--though in the absence of exact statistics it may not be
certain--that the birth-rate in China is very high. But it is quite
certain that the infantile death-rate is extremely high. "Out of ten
children born among us, three, normally the weakest three, will fail to
grow up: out of ten children born in China these weakest three will die,
and probably five more besides," writes Professor Ross, who is
intimately acquainted with Chinese conditions, and has closely
questioned thirty-three physicians practising i