nt years it has become very difficult to estimate exactly what
economic factors affect the marriage-rate. It is believed by some that
the marriage-rate rises or falls with the value of exports.[132] Udny
Yule, however, in an expertly statistical study of the matter,[133] finds
(in agreement with Hooker) that neither exports nor imports tally with
the marriage-rate. He concludes that the movement of prices is a
predominant--though by no means the sole--factor in the change of
marriage-rates, a fall in prices producing a fall in the marriage-rates
and also in the birth-rates, though he also thinks that pressure on the
labour market has forced both rates lower than the course of prices
would lead one to expect. In so far as these causes are concerned, Udny
Yule states, the fall is quite normal and pessimistic views are
misplaced. Udny Yule, however, appears to be by no means confident that
his explanation covers a large part of the causation, and he admits that
he cannot understand the rationale of the connection between
marriage-rates and prices. The curves of the marriage-rates in many
countries indicate a maximum about or shortly before, 1875, when the
birth-rate also tended to reach a maximum, and another rise towards
1900, thus making the intermediate curve concave. There was, however, a
large rise in money wages between 1860 and 1875, and the rise in the
consuming power of the population has been continuous since 1850. Thus
the factors favourable to a high marriage-rate must have risen from 1850
to a maximum about 1870-1875, and since then have fallen continuously.
This statement, which Mr. Udny Yule emphasizes, certainly seems highly
significant from our present point of view. It falls into line with the
view here accepted, that the first result of a sudden access of
prosperity is to produce a general orgy, a reckless and improvident
haste to take advantage of the new prosperity, but that, as the effects
of the orgy wear off, it necessarily gives place to new ideals, and to
higher standards of life which lead to caution and prudence. Mr. N.A.
Hooker seems to have perceived this, and in the discussion which
followed the reading of Udny Yule's paper he set forth what (though it
was not accepted by Udny Yule) may perhaps fairly be regarded as the
sound view of the matter. "During the great expansion of trade prior to
1870," he remarked, "the means of satisfying the desired standard of
comfort were increasing much more ra