acknowledgment that we base our expectation of what men will do, upon
our observation of what they have done; and, that we are as firmly
convinced of the fixed order of thoughts as we are of that of things.
And, if it be urged that human actions not unfrequently appear
unaccountable and capricious, his reply is prompt:--

"I grant it possible to find some actions which seem to have no
regular connexion with any known motives, and are exceptions to all
the measures of conduct which have ever been established for the
government of men. But if one could willingly know what judgment
should be formed of such irregular and extraordinary actions, we
may consider the sentiments commonly entertained with regard to
those irregular events which appear in the course of nature, and
the operations of external objects. All causes are not conjoined to
their usual effects with like uniformity. An artificer, who handles
only dead matter, may be disappointed in his aim, as well as the
politician who directs the conduct of sensible and intelligent
agents.

"The vulgar, who take things according to their first appearance,
attribute the uncertainty of events to such an uncertainty in the
causes as make the latter often fail of their usual influence,
though they meet with no impediment to their operation. But
philosophers, observing that, almost in every part of nature, there
is contained a vast variety of springs and principles, which are
hid, by reason of their minuteness or remoteness, find that it is
at least possible the contrariety of events may not proceed from
any contingency in the cause, but from the secret operation of
contrary causes. This possibility is converted into certainty by
further observation, when they remark that, upon an exact scrutiny,
a contrariety of effects always betrays a contrariety of causes,
and proceeds from their mutual opposition. A peasant can give no
better reason for the stopping of any clock or watch, than to say
that it does not commonly go right. But an artist easily perceives
that the same force in the spring or pendulum has always the same
influence on the wheels; but fails of its usual effect, perhaps by
reason of a grain of dust, which puts a stop to the whole movement.
From the observation of several parallel instances, philosophers
form