the number of militiamen in
Upper Canada fit for service at 11,000, of whom he significantly stated
that it would probably not be prudent to arm more than 4000. This was
virtually an admission, that more than half the population were
suspected of disaffection. The Lincoln Militia were organized in five
regiments, numbering about 1,500 men, of whom perhaps two-thirds were
determined loyalists.

In many quarters before the war, the disaffection of the people was open
and undisguised, Schultz states that while at Presqu'ile, on Lake
Ontario, in 1807, he strolled along the main road, and found six or
seven farmers assembled in a country tavern, who had just heard of the
Chesapeake affair. "They seemed disappointed," he observed "that I did
not think it would lead to war, when they expected to become part of the
United States." He also relates that he was subsequently in a public
house in Niagara, where eight or ten persons were gathered about a
billiard table. The attack upon the Chesapeake again became the topic of
conversation, and one man said, "If Congress will only send us a flag
and a proclamation declaring that whoever is found in arms against the
United States, shall forfeit his lands, we will fight ourselves free
without any expense to them."

John Melish declared his conviction from enquiries made during his visit
in 1810, "that if 5000 men were sent into Upper Canada with a
proclamation of independence, the great mass of the people would join
the American Government." Barnabas Bidwell, formerly Attorney General of
Massachusetts, who had become a defaulter and fled to the Newcastle
District, near the Bay of Quinte, where he was engaged in teaching a
private school, wrote secretly to his political friends in a similar
strain.

These statements were eagerly quoted, and no doubt believed by the
leaders of the war party in Congress. Henry Clay assured the people
that "the conquest of Canada is in your power. I trust I shall not be
deemed presumptuous when I state that I verily believe that the Militia
of Kentucky are alone competent to place Montreal and Upper Canada at
your feet."

On the 6th of March, 1812, Calhoun expressed equal confidence. "So far
from being unprepared, Sir," he exclaimed. "I believe that four weeks
from the time the declaration of war is heard on our frontier, the whole
of Upper Canada and a part of Lower Canada will be in our possession."

Jefferson wrote about the same time that "The ac