as directed
mainly against herself and as a serious menace_ to her most vital
interests and to the conditions of her very existence.

Would not Germany have become uneasy had Russia suddenly announced a
policy of concentrating an enormous fleet in the Baltic? (The
parallel, though, is far from perfect, in that for you, sea power is
not nearly as vital an element as it is and must be for England.)

Your naval policy, together with the arguments which the German
Government's spokesmen adduced for it, and the above-mentioned
manifestations and agitations, caused very serious and lasting
apprehensions in England. They gradually drove her to the Entente with
France, and through it, unfortunately perhaps, but necessarily, also
with Russia--not as an offensive, but as a defensive measure.

Let me say, in parenthesis, that in the interest of England and France
and of the peace of the world, I have always felt inclined to doubt
the wisdom of this grouping, however comprehensible and natural it was
under the circumstances. Likewise, I have always doubted the wisdom of
the creation of your enormous fleet--a view which was shared by some
of your best political thinkers and which appears to have been
justified by results.

2. The genesis of the war lay in the fixed idea by which Austria was
possessed, since her foreign Minister Aehrenthal succeeded in reaping
easy and questionable but profitable laurels some years ago, that she
could and ought to adopt a "dashing" policy. There is nothing more
dangerous than the foolish and reckless daring of feebleness, when, as
happens at times, it is suddenly seized with a mania for heroics.

In fact, as I gleaned from a letter received here within a few days of
the outbreak of the war and originating from a particularly
authoritative source in Vienna, Austria entirely failed to realize the
portentous significance and the inevitable consequences of her
unheard-of ultimatum to Serbia.

She believed that she would be left undisturbed to play the conqueror
at the expense of that poor little country. Unfortunately, Germany did
not see fit to put a stop to that extremely dangerous playing with
fire. On the contrary, the German Ambassador in Vienna seems to have
encouraged it, actively and deliberately.

3. When finally the crisis had come, with all its terrible meaning,
Austria's nerves, at the very last moment, began to give way. She
wavered in the face of a world catastrophe.

But your Jun