prediction, if art it could be called, was acquired,
they confessed, by carefully observing signs and omens.

Few put more confidence in signs and omens than Knox, the great
reformer, did; and he himself foresaw several events, and the fate of
certain persons. When condemned to a galley in Rochelle, he predicted
that within two or three years he would preach the gospel at St.
Giles's, in Edinburgh, which, improbable though it was at the time,
happened as he had foretold. Of Queen Mary and Darnley he said, that
in justice she would be made an instrument of retribution, and that he
(the king) would be overthrown. Knox predicted the death of Thomas
Maitland, and of Kirkaldy of Grange; and he solemnly warned the Regent
Murray against going to Linlithgow, where he was assassinated. The
common people imagined that Knox was not only a preacher, but a
prophet. A Spanish friar foretold the death of Henry IV. of France.
The king's friends made known to him that his life was in danger, but
he disregarded the prediction, and, before a year went round, the
friar's words were verified.

None of the persons we have named laid claim to the prophetic gift.
Their predictions rested chiefly or solely on the observation of what
was passing around them. The augury to which they trusted was more
physical than divine. Some believed in physiognomy, others relied on
the appearance of the political horizon, and so on. The foolhardy
mariner sees the barometer falling, and perceives the blackened
heavens, yet he goes to sea with his frail craft: the storm overtakes
him, and he, his crew, and ship are lost in the mighty deep. The
prudent sailor takes warning: he observes the black clouds gathering
over his head, and hears the distant thunder; he stays in port until
the disturbed elements cease their raging, and he lives to go to sea
again and again. If the weather be propitious, we may expect a
plentiful harvest; if a horse is given to stumbling, he is likely to
come down some day; if the lakes are frozen, skaters may be expected
to be drowned; and if men and women will bathe, we may calculate with
certainty that some of them will go beyond their depths and perish in
the water. Then again, if a man be diligent in business, we may expect
him to become rich; but if he be slothful, he has nothing to look for
but poverty. If an individual persist in a course of crime, he will,
to an almost absolute certainty, be punished. All this is easily
understo