urplus
of seamen and mechanics will go to the armed shipping.

The whole question of the value of a reserve, developed or
undeveloped, amounts now to this: Have modern conditions of warfare
made it probable that, of two nearly equal adversaries, one will be so
prostrated in a single campaign that a decisive result will be reached
in that time? Sea warfare has given no answer. The crushing successes
of Prussia against Austria, and of Germany against France, appear to
have been those of a stronger over a much weaker nation, whether the
weakness were due to natural causes, or to official incompetency. How
would a delay like that of Plevna have affected the fortune of war,
had Turkey had any reserve of national power upon which to call?

If time be, as is everywhere admitted, a supreme factor in war, it
behooves countries whose genius is essentially not military, whose
people, like all free people, object to pay for large military
establishments, to see to it that they are at least strong enough to
gain the time necessary to turn the spirit and capacity of their
subjects into the new activities which war calls for. If the existing
force by land or sea is strong enough so to hold out, even though at a
disadvantage, the country may rely upon its natural resources and
strength coming into play for whatever they are worth,--its numbers,
its wealth, its capacities of every kind. If, on the other hand, what
force it has can be overthrown and crushed quickly, the most
magnificent possibilities of natural power will not save it from
humiliating conditions, nor, if its foe be wise, from guarantees which
will postpone revenge to a distant future. The story is constantly
repeated on the smaller fields of war: "If so-and-so can hold out a
little longer, this can be saved or that can be done;" as in sickness
it is often said: "If the patient can only hold out so long, the
strength of his constitution may pull him through."

England to some extent is now such a country. Holland was such a
country; she would not pay, and if she escaped, it was but by the skin
of her teeth. "Never in time of peace and from fear of a rupture,"
wrote their great statesman, De Witt, "will they take resolutions
strong enough to lead them to pecuniary sacrifices beforehand. The
character of the Dutch is such that, unless danger stares them in the
face, they are indisposed to lay out money for their own defence. I
have to do with a people who, liberal to prof