inction between the two ways of combining them. For, in the first
place, in investigations of any complexity both induction and deduction
recur again and again in whatever order may be most convenient; and, in
the second place, the so-called 'inverse order' is sometimes resorted to
in Astronomy and Physics. For example, Kepler's Laws were first
collected empirically from observations of the planetary motions, and
afterwards deduced by Newton from the Law of Gravitation; this, then,
was the Inverse Method; but the result is something very different from
any that can be obtained by the Historical Method. The essential
difference between the Physical and Historical Methods is that, in the
former, whether Direct or Inverse, the deductive process, when complete,
amounts to exact demonstration; whereas, in the latter, the deductions
may consist of qualitative reasonings, and the results are indefinite.
They establish--(1) a merely probable connection between the phenomena
according to an empirical law (say, between City-democracy and fickle
politics); (2) connect this with other historical or social
generalisations, by showing that they all alike flow from the same
causes, namely, from the nature of races of men under certain social and
geographical conditions; and (3) explain why such empirical laws may
fail, according to the differences that prevail among races of men and
among the conditions under which they live. Thus, seeing how rapidly
excitement is propagated by the chatter, grimacing, and gesticulation of
townsmen, it is probable enough that the democracy of a City-state
should be fickle (and arbitrary, because irresponsible). A similar
phenomenon of panic, sympathetic hope and despair, is exhibited by every
stock-exchange, and is not peculiar to political life. And when
political opinion is not manufactured solely in the reverberating
furnace of a city, fickleness ceases to characterise democracy; and, in
fact, is not found in Switzerland, or the United States, nor in France
so far as politics, depend upon the peasantry.

This is called the Historical Method, then, because it is especially
useful in explaining the movements of history, and in verifying the
generalisations of political and social science. We must not, however,
suppose that its use is confined to such studies. Only a ridiculous
pedantry would allot to each subject its own method and forbid the use
of any other; as if it were not our capital object to es