German x x x
John Price Welsh x x
--- --- --- ---
Totals 6 8 7 7
--------------------------------------------------------------

From these limited data one obviously concludes that the Scotch-Irish
were not only the most numerous but also the most persistent of these
frontiersmen. Also, nine of these men, that is all except Clark, Jones,
and King, appear on the tax lists for Northumberland County for the year
1785.[24] Interestingly enough, six of these nine were Scotch-Irish; and
although our sample is limited, it is readily apparent that the stalwart
Scots had a way of "hanging on." It would be presumptuous to conclude
that seventy-five per cent of the residents before 1778 returned by
1785; but it is fact that some forty families had made improvements in
the area by 1773 when William Cooke was sent out by the Land Office to
"Warn the People of[f] the unpurchased Land."[25] Furthermore, as
indicated earlier, some fifty families appear on the assessments for
1786, more than half of whom had been in the region before.

Any effort to analyze the population in terms of stability and mobility
runs head-on into the creation of new townships in the 1780's, the
inability to establish death rates for this frontier, and the inadequacy
of probate records. The result is that the data are intuitively rather
than statistically sound. Chart 5 offers a comparison of tax lists over
a period of nine years as the basis for some conclusions regarding the
stability and mobility of the Fair Play settlers.

CHART 5

Population Stability and Mobility
Based Upon a Comparison of Tax Lists
For the Period From 1778 to 1787.[26]

1778-80 1781 1783-84 1786 1787
==========================================================
Number of residents
assessed 27 29 34 40 68
Number appearing on
previous assessments 6 19 21 14 33
----------------------------------------------------------

Except for the 1783-84 figures, all of the tax data are for State taxes.
The exception is the listing for the federal supply tax in 1783-84. The
steady growth rate of the area is easily recognizable both in raw
figures and in percentages. Beginning with an increase of a little more
than seven per cent b