war of 1870, the widespread
anticipation of French victories was clearly shown by the unanimity
with which the journalists of various nationalities illustrated
their papers with maps giving the country between the French
frontier and Berlin, and omitting the part of France extending
to Paris. In less than five weeks from the opening of hostilities
events had made it certain that a map of the country to the eastward
of Lorraine would be practically useless to a student of the
campaign, unless it were to follow the route of the hundreds
of thousands of French soldiers who were conveyed to Germany as
prisoners of war.

It is to be specially noted that in the above enumeration only
contests in which the result was unexpected--unexpected not only
by the beaten side but also by impartial observers--have been
specified. In all wars one side or the other is defeated; and it
has not been attempted to give a general _resume_ of the history
of war. The object has been to show the frequency--in all ages
and in all circumstances of systematic, as distinguished from
savage, warfare--of the defeat of the force which by general
consent was regarded as certain to win. Now it is obvious that
a result so frequently reappearing must have a distinct cause,
which is well worth trying to find out. Discovery of the cause
may enable us to remove it in the future, and thus prevent results
which are likely to be all the more disastrous because they have
not been foreseen.

Professional military writers--an expression which, as before
explained, includes naval--do not help us much in the prosecution
of the search which is so eminently desirable. As a rule, they
have contrived rather to hide than to bring to light the object
sought for. It would be doing them injustice to assume that this
has been done with deliberate intention. It is much more likely
due to professional bias, which exercises over the minds of members
of definitely limited professions incessant and potent domination.
When alluding to occurrences included in the enumeration given
above, they exhibit signs of a resolve to defend their profession
against possible imputations of inefficiency, much more than
a desire to get to the root of the matter. This explains the
unremitting eagerness of military writers to extol the special
qualities developed by long-continued service habits and methods.
They are always apprehensive of the possibility of credit being
given to fighting bodie