ibution of over L4,000,000 from the new
Irish Parliament, as in the Bill of 1886, or an allocation of one-third
of the general revenue of Ireland, for Imperial expenditure, as in the
Bill of 1893. Lord Morley has told us that in 1886 Mr. Parnell was
gravely disturbed over the finance proposals of Mr. Gladstone. We
thought him unreasonable at the time, and perhaps a little mean. I can
remember Liberals saying hard things about the Irish attitude in those
days. But the events that have occurred since prove that Mr. Parnell,
on that occasion, was only exercising his customary shrewdness. He saw
to the root of the matter. He was evidently possessed with the fear
that he might be saddled with a poverty-stricken Home Rule Parliament,
and the course of events since 1886 has somewhat justified his fear.

THE NEW IRISH DEFICIT

For since 1886, two events have happened. The first has been that
Ireland instead of being the creditor is now the debtor of England. The
most recent Treasury estimate, as given by Mr. Asquith in his first
reading speech on the Home Rule Bill of 1912 gives the true deficit of
Ireland for 1912-3 at L1,500,000. I am aware that the Treasury
estimates are open to many criticisms, which have been brilliantly
stated by Professor Kettle in his handbook on "Home Rule Finance,"[73]
but for our present purposes we are bound to accept these figures.

What do they show? In the first place, they fully bear out the forecast
of the Financial Relations Commission that the position of Ireland
under the Act of Union would become steadily worse. We have probably
not yet reached the bottom of the hill. Ireland is so poor that each
new Act for the relief of poverty increases the disproportion between
the expenditure of Great Britain and Ireland. There is no way out of
that vicious circle. If England were to increase Irish taxation she
would simply increase the poverty which she has to relieve. During the
last fifty years, in fact, the British Government has had to give back
in some form of relief an equivalent for almost every increase of
taxation enforced upon Ireland. If Ireland cannot pay, England must
pay. That means that unless Home Rule is given during the next twenty
years Ireland will become an increasingly heavy charge upon Great
Britain.

In face of these facts, it is clear that Great Britain will be wise to
"cut the loss." Considerable scorn has been thrown on the suggestion
made by Professor Kettle and other