hat the boy who is at the top of his class so often turns
out a failure, while the dunce who failed in his examinations
sometimes becomes a genius or at any rate a very useful and capable
man. From such facts, which are extremely common, it is falsely
concluded, by a kind of fatalism, that "one never knows what will
become of a man, for personalities change so much." This false
conclusion is simply due to the erroneous criterion which is used in
the evaluation of childhood, combined with the disgust inspired in
strong and original minds by our schools.

Diseases and other accidents may sometimes hinder the development of
good dispositions, or even cause them to abort completely.
Nevertheless, we shall rarely make false prophecies if we begin by
avoiding the gross errors that we have pointed out in the mental
evaluation of youth. It is also necessary to institute extensive
psychological observations on the development of individuals, and in
the value of their work at adult age compared with their peculiarities
observed in childhood. I am certain that in this way the social value
of a young man, or even a child, and in general all members of human
society, could be calculated in advance in a more exact way.

=Domestic Animals and Plants.=--The weak constitution of the domestic
varieties of plants and animals has been used as an argument against
human selection. If the animal and vegetable varieties which we raise
by artificial selection have not enough strength when left to
themselves, this is due to the fact that in creating them we have not
consulted their interests in the struggle for existence, but only our
own. For example, we raise for our own use fat pigs which can scarcely
walk, pear trees with succulent fruit which has very few seeds, etc.
It is obvious that these monstrosities cannot be expected to maintain
themselves in the struggle for existence. Human selection, on the
contrary, is only concerned with what is advantageous for man,
individually as well as socially. It is, therefore, not a question of
a Utopian hypothesis, but of facts, the daily consequences of which we
can observe in society, if we only look at them without prejudice.

=Calculation of Averages.=--Francis Galton has studied this question
by the aid of the law of variations and by the calculation of
probabilities. This law only deals with so-called fortuitous elements,
due to thousands of minute causes which act to a great extent against
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