ve they will
all feel that it was wise for me to come at this time.

I shall not write more fully for the reason I am to see you so
soon.

I am sending this through the kindness of Sir Horace Plunkett.

Faithfully yours,
E.M. HOUSE.

P.S. We shall probably say, for public consumption, that I am
coming to look into relief measures, and see what further can be
done. Of course, no one but you and Sir Edward must know the real
purpose of my visit.

Why was Colonel House so confident that the Dual Alliance was prepared
at this time to discuss terms of peace? Colonel House, as his letter
shows, was in communication with Zimmermann, the German Under Foreign
Secretary. But a more important approach had just been made, though
information bearing on this had not been sent to Page. The Kaiser had
asked President Wilson to transmit to Great Britain a suggestion for
making peace on the basis of surrendering Belgium and of paying for its
restoration. It seems incredible that the Ambassador should not have
been told of this, but Page learned of the proposal from Field Marshal
French, then commanding the British armies in the field, and this
accounts for Colonel House's explanation that, "the reason you had no
information, in regard to what General French mentioned was because no
one knew of it outside of the President and myself and there was no safe
way to inform you." Page has left a memorandum which explains the whole
strange proceeding--a paper which is interesting not only for its
contents, but as an illustration of the unofficial way in which
diplomacy was conducted in Washington at this time:

* * * * *

Field Marshal Sir John French, secretly at home from his command of the
English forces in France, invited me to luncheon. There were his
especially confidential friend Moore, the American who lives with him,
and Sir John's private secretary. The military situation is this: a
trench stalemate in France. Neither army has made appreciable progress
in three months. Neither can advance without a great loss of men.
Neither is whipped. Neither can conquer. It would require a million more
men than the Allies can command and a very long time to drive the
Germans back across Belgium. Presently, if the Russians succeed in
driving the Germans back to German soil, there will be another trench
stalemate there. Thus the war wears a practically endless ou